Democrats’ top national target, in a race that just got turned upside down twice in two weeks.
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THE RACE — AND WHY IT’S STILL SETTLING
Susan Collins is the only Republican senator up for reelection this cycle in a state Kamala Harris carried in 2024, and Democrats have viewed her as a top target for years — she’s proven hard to beat before, having outrun Trump by nearly 7 points in her 2020 win over well-funded challenger Sara Gideon.
This year’s primary has been unusually chaotic. Oyster farmer and progressive favorite Graham Platner won the June 9 primary outright, running with Bernie Sanders’ backing on a populist platform. Then, in early July, a former girlfriend accused him of sexual assault — an allegation Platner denies — and he withdrew on July 10 after Democratic leaders, including former rival Troy Jackson, called for him to exit.
That kicked off a scramble: 12 Democrats initially filed to be considered as his replacement. By this past weekend, all of Jackson’s major rivals — Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former Maine CDC director Nirav Shah, and Jordan Wood — had dropped out, with Jackson’s campaign claiming more than 460 of the 500 county-level delegate slots. The nomination isn’t official until Saturday’s special convention in Bangor on July 25 — but Jackson is the clear presumptive nominee at this point.
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TROY JACKSON (D) — THE LOGGER STEPPING IN
Jackson is a former Maine Senate president from a logging family near the Quebec border, with decades of experience as a state lawmaker in Augusta. He ran for governor earlier this year, placing third in the June primary, then threw his support behind Platner for Senate before Platner’s exit created this opening. Jackson shares Platner’s populist, progressive positioning and inherited Sanders’ backing along with it — he supports universal healthcare and has been visible on immigration enforcement issues, appearing at a demonstration outside a Scarborough federal immigration office after ICE fatally shot a man there on July 14.
His pitch is continuity of message, not a pivot: carry forward the same “fighting oligarchy” energy Platner built, from a candidate with a much longer institutional record and none of the personal controversy.
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SUSAN COLLINS (R) — THE MODERATE WHOSE OWN PARTY DOESN’T LOVE HER EITHER
Collins’ numbers are the worst of her career. Morning Consult found her underwater by as much as 20 points with Maine voters in early 2026, and nationally she ranks as the second-most unpopular senator in the country, trailing only Mitch McConnell in disapproval. A University of New Hampshire poll found her favorability at just 12%, with 58% viewing her unfavorably.
Here’s the twist: this isn’t simply a Democrat-versus-Republican problem for her. Collins voted against Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” over Medicaid cuts — she was the deciding 50th “no” vote, forced to a tie broken by Vice President Vance — and even sponsored a millionaire’s-tax amendment to fund rural hospitals during the fight. Trump stayed conspicuously silent rather than attacking her over it. But that vote didn’t buy her goodwill at home either: Republican approval of her in Maine is weaker than any other GOP senator up in 2026, with just 12% of Maine Republicans “strongly” approving of her — 10 points worse than the next-most-vulnerable incumbent, Thom Tillis. She’s underwater with her own base and with the state as a whole, a genuinely rare position for a 30-year incumbent.
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WHY THIS RACE MATTERS TO PROJECT ZERO
Both national parties are treating this as one of the seats that could decide Senate control. Collins has survived being the most-targeted Republican before. But she’s never run for reelection this unpopular with her own party’s voters in her own state. Zero starts with the seat both sides already agree is in play.
STATUS: Toss-up / top-tier national target. Democratic nominee expected to be formalized July 25. General: November 3.
— Project Zero Club | projectzero.club